Once again, the foodservice sector is standing on the edge of a precipice. It seems to have returned to the days of early April with selected lockdowns affecting trading in restaurants, pubs, hotels, and the leisure sector.
And as I write this, a greater danger has appeared. Total lockdown, for a month, possibly longer, has been announced and will come into force on the 5 November.
Read the full report here
Prohibition on trading
This includes a prohibtion on restaurant and pub trading other than for delivery and take away.
I had prepared my forecasts while total lockdown was just one of several possibilities, but it is now becoming the reality. The announcement came too late to totally rework all my figures (summarised later in this report). Therefore, I have included some overall figures which attempt to show the scale of the effects of this new period of lockdown. I would also not want this “Headlines” commentary reflects the situation immediatley before the announcement of the second lockdown.
Similarities and important differences
While there are many similarites with the situation at the start of covid, seven months ago, there are important differences, too. On the plus side, the medical fraternity learned many lessons (often at great emotional and financial cost) on how to cope with covid. And these lessons are now being applied to medical interventions, with the result that, at the medical level, there is a broad perception that it can cope. And that is perhaps feeding through to a somehwat higher level of confidence about the future amongst the public at large. Another positive has been that the direst of forecasts didn’t come true. The fodservice sector didn’t collpase. While that is cold comfort it also carries lessons for the future.
A viable vaccine
And that future looks as though it will include some viable vaccine in the next few months, even though there are doubts about how effective it will be in terms of the length of time antibodies may remain effective, and the length of time required to vaccinate a significant proprtion of the population.
Read the full Quarter 3 briefing here.
Peter provides consultancy on the eating out market and opens eyes to brand new ways of thinking about the sector and its multiple opportunities for success.