A return to 1978?

Noah & the Flood

The Beverage Standards Association brings you Peter’s Monday 16th May 2022 Weekly Briefing.

Monday, 16th May 2022 Weekly Report
A return to 1978!

Do we want to return to 1978? In answering this odd question, I will first turn to the latest forecasts from the Bank of England which say that, by the end of this year, households will be spending somewhere between 7.5% and 8% of their income on energy; they also say that GDP will not be growing, even though inflation will be running at 10.2%. And the Bank also expects unemployment to rise from 3.8% now to 5.5% in 2025.

Mapping previous figures

Now I have mapped those figures on to past periods to see if it’s possible to find another time when similar metrics have applied. Mapping economic performance in this way is fraught with difficulties of definitions, measurement and awkward comparisons. But looking back over the past half century or so, 1978 stands out. In that year, households spent about 8% of their income on energy, GDP was falling (by -2% a year), inflation was 10%, and unemployment was 5.5% and rising.

Thank you for reading part of the Monday 16th May 2022 Weekly Briefing. A full edition can be found here.

Peters Monthly Report for March 2022 is now available here.

Peters Quarterly Report for January to March 2022 is available here. NEW

Peter provides consultancy on the eating out market and opens eyes to brand new ways of thinking about the sector and its multiple opportunities for success.

(E) peter@peterbackmanfs.com (w) www.peterbackmanfs.com